At what point (in the States) will automobiles with manual transmissions become so undesirable by the general public that the bottom will completely drop out on their resale value?

"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction) 07/29/2020 at 10:10 • Filed to: None

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And have they made enough GT4s and manual GT3s for this to apply to these as well? =)

But seriously, it’s just a foregone conclusion, right? Would love to see the statistics, broken down by age, of Americans who still regularly drive a manual, and also who actually can. When does total supply completely overwhelm demand? Used Jeeps would be a good barometer, I think, considering how many there are and how well they keep their value. If values start dropping considerably for manuals relative to automatics because there are just so many available for sale and insufficient buyers, that will be a pretty clear indicator.

Thankfully, there is a very strong nostalgia in the States for cool, old mechanical/analog things, and I assume that will continue as the world becomes more virtual/digital. Hopefully there will also be enough of us interested in old, manual sports cars, SUVs & trucks. That said, I wouldn’t at all mind being able to buy a GT4 for $30k in 2030... Hopefully my back holds up.

For your viewing/listening pleasure (analog supercar comparison):

I like to think that some of the young engineers that helped design and build the S70/2 were still around to design and build the S65B40 in my car.

benjrblant > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:15

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What you’re describing (bottom dropping out) is more of a crash. I don’t think that will happen, I’d expect more of a fade as we’re currently seeing: less new options, used options wear out and go off-market, drivers become fewer until there’s just a few die-hards remaining. I’m having a hard time picturing a complete absence of demand.

Thomas Donohue > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:16

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The general public gave up on the manual in 2002 or so.

Ash78, voting early and often > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:19

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At some point, they’ll be so rare and desirable in the secondary market that they’ll probably command a premium. This even happens for certain new cars (Pontiac G8 comes to mind).

!!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > benjrblant 07/29/2020 at 10:22

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It won’t take a complete absence of demand. It’d take supply of used manuals that greatly outnumbers the people willing to buy them. You might be right that the older, high-mileage examples will just end up in the junkyard before this scenario happens.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Thomas Donohue 07/29/2020 at 10:23

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I wonder how many more days a used car with a manual transmission stays on the lot compared with an auto...

MonkeePuzzle > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:24

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it already happened.

craigslist has long been the realm of used car sales, but that role is being taken by facebook marketplace these days, and FB marketplace defaults ads to “automatic”.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Thomas Donohue 07/29/2020 at 10:24

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I remember an old car and driver 2004 “death of manual” as civic was less than 2 0% and consistently dropping.

Edit originally had 10%

facw > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:25

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Well currently only around 1% of new cars sold in the US are manuals. As of 2016, US News and World Reports said somewhere between 18 % and 60% of Americans knew how to drive stick. Given the low number of cars being sold with sticks, I’d expect that number to fall a lot further given that it means Americans will have a harder time finding a car to learn on, and basically no need to do so.

I would expect it will never make a big difference for sports cars, since the people buying those will be willing to learn (even if it means you have to buy a beater econobox to learn on).

However, for everything else I’d expect steeper depreciation as fewer people can drive them.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Ash78, voting early and often 07/29/2020 at 10:25

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For certain cars with limited production , for sure. I’m thinking of more widely available cars (think Miata/86).

Roadkilled > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:26

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There are two separate segments.

You have ordinary cars. There won’t be that many people nostalgic for a Toyota Corolla or Ford Ranger with a manual. The older cars and trucks with manuals will probably head to the junk yard at the same rate that the appeal of the manual will wane. The vehicles with manual transmissions will be old enough that the price won’t vary much depending on the transmission.

Then there are the enthusiast cars. For these, the manual will remain the desirable version. At this point, most people looking for an E30 or E36 M3 know how to drive a stick. Sure, there will be some people looking for nostalgia trying to find a 67 Mustang with an automatic, but they will find a cheaper car because they want one that looks like a Mustang regardless of how it drives. People looking for cheap driving fun will still be drawn to stick shifts in cars like the NA Miata because they are still cheap, and that will get them into driving sticks and moving on to other vehicles.

Disclaimer: This is my opinion only and I could be completely wrong. I usu ally am.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MonkeePuzzle 07/29/2020 at 10:26

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The question is, are manual versions or used cars commanding thousands of dollars less than a comparable automatics ?

The Ghost of Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:26

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We will run out of oil to suck out of the ground before the market for manual transmissions completely bottoms out. The supply of available manuals has fallen with the demand

B_dol > MonkeePuzzle 07/29/2020 at 10:28

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FB marketplace search sucks to no end. Impossible to find anything, which actually makes finding a diamond in the rough easier ? Sellers on FB make Craigslist look more like BaT these days... 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > facw 07/29/2020 at 10:29

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Right, that’s kind of what I’m thinking. At what point does a used manual Mazda 3 cost $5k less than an automatic? Actually, at that point, it will make a lot more sense for a value buyer to get the manual, even if they have to learn, so that may help avoid the scenario that I’m hypothesizing.

Milky > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:29

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Its gonna go the other way if anything.  More people want manuals used rather than new.  

Thomas Donohue > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 07/29/2020 at 10:29

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T hey were that low back then? Yikes. I figured they were still 20% now.

I do know my sister tried to buy a leftover 2015 Sentra a few years ago, there were two manuals buried in the lot. Of the three salespersons, none k new how to drive a stick. They asked her to get it out for them.

Tripper > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:30

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IMO I think it will happen “the bottom dropping out”, but it’s going to be real hard to call as to what cars will be affected. It almost certainly won’t be any popular enthusiast cars because that market will always exist in some capacity. For instance, your M3 is going to be worth a lot more than a DCT model in 2040. However, something like my A lltrack... Only grandpa enthusiasts are even going to know what that is in  2040. It and other manual golf variants are so plentiful and the youths hate driving.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > The Ghost of Oppo 07/29/2020 at 10:30

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It won’t take zero demand, it will just take far less demand than supply.

No one talks about peak oil anymore, unless they’re talking about peak oil demand .

MKULTRA1982(ConCrustyBrick) > MonkeePuzzle 07/29/2020 at 10:31

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I find lots of cars command a premium for manual transmission used, at least in Canada. Auto being the default or not there will be a market for manual cars for a while. It’s a novelty thing now 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Milky 07/29/2020 at 10:31

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How long will that hold true, though?

MKULTRA1982(ConCrustyBrick) > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:31

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In my experience it’s the opposite in a surprising amount of cases

Grindintosecond > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:31

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I think of this video every time the thoughts and discussions crop up about manuals and the future.

Before we had the standard three pedals and standard shift patterns and standardized locations for controle, the Model T was all over the place and more complicated to use it all in harmony. That is where I think the standard shift car is going.

Tailwheel aircraft are called “Conventional gear” even today when anything new is a tricycle arrangement . Standard transmissions are stick shifts and although the standard is autos, it will still be called a standard shift.

But when will it fall out of favor? When autos replace them in every single way. Microsecond shifts and total control exist in some autoboxes today and when that more or less trickles down to the cheap cars, is when manuals will disappear. I test drove a ‘new’ mini with the paddle shifters and it was a 1 full second delay between shifts. That was shitty. That was not sporty. That was useless. I knew then, that w hen that car gets the split second dsg type stuff, it would be better than a true manual to drive. Purists be damned.

The caveat is the maintenance for when age and lack of maintenance makes the quick auto explode. The headache of fixing /replacing it and cost, is what keeps the manuals a better option today, but to be honest, they make disposable cars today so when its time to get rid of it is when its about to blow up in your face. When the maintenance costs to replace a fast shifting auto tranny is same or less than a manual, then manuals will die.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Roadkilled 07/29/2020 at 10:33

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I’m going to disagree on the Ford Ranger manual, but I take your point.

I think you’re right that some percentage of enthusiast buyers will always want the manual, and younger enthusiasts will be willing to learn in order to enjoy some of these older, fantastic automobiles.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:34

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There will always be an enthusiast market for manuals. I bet my 2013 outback will be worth double what a CVT outback can fetch when it has 150,000 miles and needs a third engine.

Thomas Donohue > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:34

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Probably an inverse to the ratio to 997.1 Tiptronics that sit longer than manuals.

arl > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:34

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The day our government overlords make us lease our AI-enabled  automated electric pods.

I kid, but I’ll bet it’s sooner rather than later for 99% of cars. Maybe the Miata and a few sports cars will have them, but most cars won’t.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > B_dol 07/29/2020 at 10:34

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Does Fb get a cut of sales, or are they just wanting you to stay in the Fb ecosystem to sell more ads and gather more data on you?

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Thomas Donohue 07/29/2020 at 10:35

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edit was @20%. Now down to 13% for the civic.

10% was the lower end  car market

HammerheadFistpunch > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:35

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Man there it's still a market for type witters. I'm not worried

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MKULTRA1982(ConCrustyBrick) 07/29/2020 at 10:35

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Yeah, for now. Just wondering when that might flip.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Thomas Donohue 07/29/2020 at 10:36

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LOL

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Thomas Donohue 07/29/2020 at 10:36

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That’s hilarious, and sad.

Thomas Donohue > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 07/29/2020 at 10:36

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Wow.

MonkeePuzzle > B_dol 07/29/2020 at 10:38

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yes! FB marketplace searching, sorting, and using “-” to remove search terms is USELESS!

BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:38

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Hopefully the graph curves will cross, that as the general public stops wanting them, the remaining examples will reach classic status, and the collectors and enthusiasts will pick up that demand for the relatively small sub-set of modern cars that do come with manual transmissions.

Hopefully it will be a point to differentiate the “self-indulgent weiners with too much bloody money.” from the “true connoisseurs. ”

Because, after all, two Rogers don’t make a right.

MonkeePuzzle > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:38

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dunno, but the point I was attempting to make is that 90+% of sellers and buyers dont seem to really care enough to make it suitably searchable even. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Grindintosecond 07/29/2020 at 10:38

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I think this is a pretty accurate take, but a standard manual transmission probably will not be viewed as a Model T’s transmission until well after I’m dead and gone.

onlytwowheels > Thomas Donohue 07/29/2020 at 10:40

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In 2002 I was attempting to sell my 2001 Mazda B3000, V6 w/ 5 speed. I had one low ball offer in 3 months. I asked a used car dealer what he thought the issue was, without mentioning any particulars. First question he asked, “It’s not manual, is it?” I said yes. “ Well that really hurts ” he says. Next question he asked, “It isn’t green, is it?”. I say “ it is” . “Well there’s your problem. One of those is going to be a difficult sale, together, next to impossible ” he says. I contacted the low baller and  took my beating.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Tripper 07/29/2020 at 10:41

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Yeah, I think this is accurate. Grindintosecond’s point about the cost of trans mission rebuild/ re placement is a good one. Used car buyers are more often value buyers, so if the manual is cheaper, or cheaper to fix, that may keep up the demand enough to prevent prices from crashing.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > HammerheadFistpunch 07/29/2020 at 10:41

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Haha - people still buy horses...

Thomas Donohue > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:43

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It was bad. After all that, t hey still tried to get more for the stick because she only wanted a stick. It was a F—-g leftover!!! They wanted to lease it to her for more than the currently model year automatic. I had to drive up and visit the dealer, explain how things were going to work, and bring some sanity to the conversation.

I think I’ve written it up here once....not sure I’ve ever lost my cool like I did that day.   Long story short, she got a decent deal, as well as many free oil changes, etc.   I promised not to return to said dealer ever again.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 07/29/2020 at 10:43

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It doesn’t have 150k yet? You’re slacking. =)

The Ghost of Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:43

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The current demand on the new market is around 1% and it was only about 3% in 2010. So let’s call it 2% of the roughly 175 million cars sold in the US over the last decade. Then subtract cars total ed in accidents and a decent portion of manuals being VWs(lol) there isn’t a massive supply.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > arl 07/29/2020 at 10:45

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That’s a whole other discussion: can the government tell you that you can’t legally use something that you legally purchased? Seems like most governments will be banning the sale of new ICE vehicles, and they’ll let time take care of the rest.

Yes, on the new market for sure. I’m specifically talking about the values of used cars with manuals.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > The Ghost of Oppo 07/29/2020 at 10:47

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Fair point!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Thomas Donohue 07/29/2020 at 10:47

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Dealers gonna deal...

Milky > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:50

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Forever?  People that like cars will still want ‘em, they’re just gone from the mainstream now.  Like horses.  

jminer > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:50

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For commuter cars it’s already there.

Last two cars I bought for my daily duty, a 12 Focus hatch and 14 TDI Sportwagen I got a great deal as they’d been sitting on the lot for 3+ months as noone wanted to daily a stick.

For enthusiast cars they make more sense and you can get a premium on it. Eventually my Sportwagen may fall into that camp, but it cost me $2500 less than a compatibly equipped used DSG when I bought it.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MonkeePuzzle 07/29/2020 at 10:51

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The strike from search option on Craiglist is great. Does any other car sales site allow that? I wish Autotrader did. No, I don’t want a Mustang/Camaro/Corvette/Challenger!

B_dol > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:51

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The latter for sure. 75% of the sellers I interacted with seemed to have zero desire to actually sell said car. Moreover, cars on FB were generally sketchier and in worse shape than Craigslist. Chalk it up as adults having kept with Craigslist and the millennial generation grabbing FB  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. 07/29/2020 at 10:53

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I’d be okay if my 12 year old, 130k mile , rock-chip covered M3 ended up keeping its value, or even went up! LOL

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > jminer 07/29/2020 at 10:56

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I’m not surprised.

What was the price delta when new on the manual vs DSG for your car?

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > HammerheadFistpunch 07/29/2020 at 10:57

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And sailboats

MonkeePuzzle > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:58

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strike search is ESSENTIAL! especially as people use “keywords” to populate their ads. you just need to remove so much chaff from the wheat

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Milky 07/29/2020 at 10:58

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I think you could be right for certain enthusiasts cars, and I guess those are the ones that will be left, in the end, once all the commuter cars are used up and sitting in the junkyard.

BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 10:59

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In well maintained, documented, prime shape, with the rock chips fixed and maybe even clear film protected... It might eventually start to appreciate a bit as it approaches 20 and 25 years old. May want to start saving $$$ and doing the repairs now...

with an M3 the best examples might appreciate , but there will likely be plenty of not-best examples for the likes of Tyler Hoover to buy and repair, to put “The Car Ninja’s” kids through college.

Hopefully it ends up better than a dead M6, like John Ross’ example, though.  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MonkeePuzzle 07/29/2020 at 11:00

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Well, there’s your problem with Craigslist. So many bogus tags...

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. 07/29/2020 at 11:07

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It is well-maintained with all records (I’m the second owner), but has the wear of a good life lived . Will be interesting if it becomes much more economically reasonable down the line to pay the money to fix the rock chips and do some extra preventative maintenance (rod bearings). It seems like they may be nearing the bottom of their depreciation curve - we’ll see, I guess. At this point, it’s worth way more to me to keep and enjoy than what someone would give me for it. I may never sell it.

174k example:

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2008-bmw-m3-96/

Arrivederci > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 11:10

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Depends.  For cars with sporting pretenses, the manuals usually command higher values, despite generally costing less new.  Porsche 911/Cayman/Boxster with PDK are generally less than their manual counterparts and Miatas with automatics are well less than their manual counterparts.

hillrat > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 11:19

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Good question with no simple answer . We’re teaching my 15 year old to drive and her first car will be a manual, OTOH my friend’s daughter (valedictorian of her class) is the only person in her class that can drive a stick.

BadMotorScooter > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 11:19

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I don’t see any crash in manual values happening. I think we are at a steady state now with new manuals and balanced supply/demand in the used market (with a few exceptions like GT3 manuals, R8/Gallardo manuals, etc).

The rise of the electric car will be the true end of the manual. Until then, we’ll continue to have some new manual cars on the market and steady demand for them used.

A couple years ago I bought a new Camaro V6 manual that had been sitting on the dealer lot for almost TWO full years. The dealer admitted ordering the manual was a big mistake as so few new car buyers wanted it, and those that did wanted a V8 Camaro. I recently traded that V6 manual for a new LT1 manual that I ordered from the same dealer. I asked if they were going to try and sell the V6 manual and they said hell no - straight to the auction!

That said, I think we’ll continue to see manuals offered in specialty cars. It is great the new Bronco has a manual option. Porsche is offering manuals in their sports cars . Ford is sticking with them in most Mustangs. Tacoma offers it and they are in demand. In fact I wonder if we actually have more manual options for MY 2021 versus 2020.

Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 11:20

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Well, turntables have made a comeback for the vinyl-loving crowd but that might just be the hipsters.

But once the Motor Law is passed and we’re all driving gleaming alloy air cars I’d guess you’ll just hear about manny trannys in songs .

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > hillrat 07/29/2020 at 11:20

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We’ll do similar with our kids, and I assume they’ll be the only ones who know in their classes (unless I teach them).

jminer > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 11:23

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Honestly don’t know - it’s $1100 difference today on a new one.

There are so few used commuter cars available in stick these last few years, my last to cars I spend months looking for each of them.

Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom > arl 07/29/2020 at 11:23

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Insert Red Barchetta reference here:

hillrat > HammerheadFistpunch 07/29/2020 at 11:27

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This gets to the heart of the matter right here. There’s always going to be a few people who appreciate the esoteric charm of technologies that have been “surpassed” and manage to retain their own unique aesthetic that inspires devotion from enthusiasts .

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > BadMotorScooter 07/29/2020 at 11:31

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Yeah, I’m super glad that they’re offering it in the Bronco, and that it came back to the GT3 (can’t be had on a base 911 anymore, though). My ‘18 Tacoma is a manual, but I had to special order it. Only 5% sell with a manual , so it might not be back for the 4th gen.

Corvette’s manual is gone, for good, it seems, but will survive in the Camaro as long as it sells. Seems like the one in the Mustang is safe, as well.

2019 article: “Ford says 50 percent of current Mustang GT buyers and 20 percent of Mustang EcoBoost buyers choose the six-speed manual.”

I guess the question is whether this little renaissance we’re seeing is short-lived. Just because they’re selling a good number of manual Mustangs today doesn’t mean that there will be as much demand for a used, manual Mustang in 5-10 years.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > jminer 07/29/2020 at 11:33

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Yup - I had to custom order my Tacoma.

HFV has no HFV. But somehow has 2 motorcycles > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 11:34

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I think manual performance/ sports cars will always have higher resale values.

But a manual base model Corrolla will be Way cheaper than an automatic one.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > HFV has no HFV. But somehow has 2 motorcycles 07/29/2020 at 11:40

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You’re probably right - it’s a limited supply that will only get more limited with time.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Arrivederci 07/29/2020 at 11:43

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Hopefully that remains to be the case.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom 07/29/2020 at 11:44

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I’m fine with hipsters if they also start buying manual transmissions.

hillrat > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 11:45

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This is the way

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > hillrat 07/29/2020 at 11:49

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Why do I have to drive a manual?

I have spoken.

———

So, something that just came to mind as we’re having this discussion: if our kids are the only ones in their friend groups that can drive a manual, and they take some friends somewhere, and our kid (God forbid) gets hurt and can’t drive, their friends won’t be able to drive them somewhere to get help...

I suggest not mentioning this scenario to your wife.

wpudvah: GTI, Super Beetle, now with more 80-Series > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 11:54

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Well I know there will be always at least one person that’s willing to overpay for the privilege  of driving a manual...

... because that person is me :)

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 11:54

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But if the car is a Jeep Patriot with a manual and crank windows and manual locks in bright red, it is probably the fastest depreciating CUV out there and you can get a similar one for waaaaay less than you think. And manual Jettas have depreciated way more than their automatic brethren too. It just sort of depends on whether the car has sporting pretensions how the manual v auto price fluctuates. 

BadMotorScooter > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 11:58

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I think it may be like vinyl records today. There is a small, but steady market for new vinyl from new artists and a steady used market. Al l in the age of easy, instant, and nearly free streaming of any song or artist you want. There are reasons why vinyl is still alive beyond nostalgia and hipsterism.

I’m surprised the take rate is that high on Mustang but that’s great if so. I’d heard it was less than 20% on Camaro and C7 Corvette. I hope enough people buy the Bronco with a manual so Ford sticks with it (pun!). Good that you ordered your Tacoma with a manual! Do dealers not stock any of them?

Back around 2014 I was talking to my Cadillac dealer about ordering a manual CTS-V wagon. I kept trying to convince them that they should order a couple as stock units as those would be the cars enthusiasts would want and would buy from all over the country. They said no way, those would be unsellable unicorns, and if I wanted one I’d have to put down a big non-refundable deposit. They were wrong then and clearly a manual CTS-V wagon is sought after and worth more today. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > wpudvah: GTI, Super Beetle, now with more 80-Series 07/29/2020 at 12:04

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Keep the faith, brother!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > BadMotorScooter 07/29/2020 at 12:09

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There may be some Toyota dealers that keep manuals on the lot, but not many.

You definitely called the manual CTS-V wagon. I might have to pick up an manual SS sedan at the bottom of their depreciation curve...

hillrat > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 12:10

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My mitigation strategy is to start my kid off with a pickup truck to cut down on the number of passengers. The research on this is VERY clear, more passengers = more risky behavior for teen drivers. This also tracks with my own experience as a teen with my friends that could best be summed up with a title of an Ice Cube song, “Doing Dumb Shit.” https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/811613.pdf

Secondary plan is to make sure that at least one of her friends gets some seat time in our manual vehicle. We live a block away from the massive parking lots of RFK that are perfect for driving practice so it’s pretty easy to do.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > hillrat 07/29/2020 at 12:11

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Good plan.

I’m convinced driving a manual for at least the first 6 months of their driving life will make make them a much better/safer driver.

marshknute > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 12:14

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I don’t think that’ll ever happen. People will stop buying manuals , but their resale value will never drop off a cliff. If anything it’ll increase the car’s value.

A manual WRX sells for about $1K more than a CVT, and a manual Ferrari 599 sells for twice what a brand new 812 Superfast costs.

As for regular cars, the manuals are so rare to begin with that enthusiasts will deliberately seek them out and travel a greater distance for them. Dealers therefore have no reason to lower the price of manuals; they may sit on the lot  for a bit longer, but they’ll always sell and they know they can play hardball on the price considering the manual’s rarity.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > marshknute 07/29/2020 at 12:16

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This is a pretty solid take.

hillrat > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 12:16

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Absolutely. I’m also considering a radio delete for the first 6 months.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > hillrat 07/29/2020 at 12:16

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Haha - cold-blooded.

Green86 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 12:20

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Never. Because used and new demand for manuals are going to be approximately equivalent, and cars going from the new to used market is only a small time lag. For what you suggest to happen, one of two things would have to happen, and it’s probably still too late given how few new cars are produced with manual transmissions.

1. A huge drop in the number of people willing to buy a manual (even though manuals would be cheaper than automatics). This is unlikely, because the set of people able to drive manual is not going to lose most of it s members overnight, and most people who can drive a manual will, with the right incentive (typically price for the non-enthusiast). So any price drop would quickly be forestalled by all the new buyers picking up a cheap car.

2. Nobody sells their brand new manual car until it’s 20 years old. This gives time for the set of people who are willing and able to drive a manual to vastly diminish. Then supply really would significantly outstrip demand. This is not realistic.

Sorry to crush your dreams, I also would like to live in a world where I am the only person able to drive the thousands of manual cars people are trying to get rid of.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Green86 07/29/2020 at 12:22

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Haha - I appreciate you thinking and talking it through with me.

Now, get your authorship!

https://oppositelock.kinja.com/i-a-glutton-for-punishment-want-you-to-be-on-opposit-1844164784

gokstate > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 12:24

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I think the take rate on Civic Si manuals still remains 100%... ;)

BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 12:29

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That is a good balance.

Cars are machines, and while we may ascribe more significance to them , they are fundamentally tools to a job, and that job is transportation. If that transportation is fast, quick, fun, and emotionally satisfying, then it is an exceedingly good tool for a very enjoyable job, and all the better for those who appreciate that.

If the tool ends up being culturally and economically valued for it’s significance... all the better, but it isn’t the primary function and purpose.

It can be artful, but ultimately it is not just art. and those who treat cars as art, may as well just have a model, sculpture, or image of a car for the appreciation of art.

I tend to start to appreciate cars a little bit less that can’t be driven well due to vulnerability, lack of reliability, delicacy, or high expense. Also, examples of functional cars that are locked away and not u tilized as a car, but only as a financial speculation vehicle, or an art object... because the engineering, and the purpose is limited or ignored.

Like “ hiding a lamp under a bushel basket” ... what purpose does wasted light serve?

Don’t waste good

Nobody gets out of this life alive... so he who ends up  with the most toys... still ends.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > gokstate 07/29/2020 at 12:31

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See also: Type R, GT350, SS 1LE, STi, Veloster N.

Long may they live.

RiceRocketeer Extraordinaire > marshknute 07/29/2020 at 12:34

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Also see prices for manual vs auto/SMG M3 and M5s ...

B_dol > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 12:35

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Even on a car like the Miata or FRS/BRZ the manual take rate is still 50-70 %. It feels like 0% on the used market with nothing but autotragic available

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. 07/29/2020 at 12:39

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You could say that cars are more like architecture than art.

My car is no longer my daily driver, but I do get it out once or twice a week, and it’s always a feast for the senses. Is it worth the annual expense to keep it around to drive it so little? Probably not, but that’s not the point, is it?

I look forward to sampling and enjoying many more cars in my life, but I don’t see myself ever becoming a collector. Cars are made to be driven.

My favorite guys are the ones who own priceless sports cars, and continue to flog the shit out of them regularly at historic races.

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 12:48

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Probably it won’t. As long as there are people who enjoy driving, there will be people learning how to drive stick- it just isn’t that hard to do. More likely, driving a car will be illegal (replaced by self driving) before the manual transmission dies.

BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 12:49

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That may be an apt comparison. Architecture similarly stands on both form and function, rather than just form.

I also do differentiate between circumstance and intention, when it comes to that...

Being in a circumstance where driving the car less often is appropriate is fine.

Intention of not actually using a functional object for it’s function, but instead for some other divergent purpose, like bagging up a new car and holding it for 25 years in the hopes of selling a zero-mile example for big money... or denying yourself and others the enjoyment of it because

It might get it might get wrecked, scratched, or *breathed on wrong*.

people with priorities that far out of whack don’t deserve such fine automobiles. ;-)

(Disclaimer: I am in no way advocating for the unlawful use or destruction of anyone’s property, let alone without their knowledge or consent. Don’t be like Ferris or Cameron... don’t steal, or kill the car.)

handrews3 > hillrat 07/29/2020 at 12:59

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Nah cause then they’re just gonna blast music from their phone and mess with it while driving. If any thing, steering wheel radio controls might be the safest way to handle distracted radio usage...

Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 13:13

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There may be a few but t hat doesn’t fit the hipster profile .

Jordan > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 13:15

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In the next 10 years, I think the US could see a miniature resurgence in manual transmission sales. Nothing drastic, but sales could go up noticeably . Why do I think this? Mainstream automakers, even Toyota, are switching from traditional torque-converter automatics to CVT’s, which are highly prone to failure. This means more people, after their CVT’s fail, will look at manuals, due to regular automatics being unavailable. 

FTTOHG Has Moved to https://opposite-lock.com > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 13:25

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I think it will vary model to model - for models offered with both an automatic and a manual a big part of it is how good the auto was.  Prices right now for the last of the diesel/manual Ford and Ram heavy-duty pickups are way above the autos mainly because the autos have a poor reliability reputation.  Considering how few were sold new, there will be enough people who can drive a manual around propping up the prices of them for a looooong time.  No excuse me while I go back and stare at this Craigslist ad for a manual 1st-gen 4Runner with 310,000 miles...

notsomethingstructural > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 13:47

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Comparing apples to apples, a quality manual will go for more than an automatic. Good maintenance, presents well, clean, etc. “Average” condition manuals tend to go for less, but generally speaking there is a much higher proportion that are kept in good repair by virtue of the kind of owners they attract.